Present results: equity curve, drawdown, expectancy, lessons learned

The final part of the capstone is communicating what happened. A good results presentation lets someone understand in five minutes whether your system worked, how much risk it took, and whether you can be trusted to run it. It's also a discipline for you: presenting results honestly forces you to confront what the data actually says — not what you hoped it would say.

What you'll learn

• The structure of a professional results presentation
• The core charts and statistics to include
• Comparing results with expectations — and interpreting the gap
• Presenting drawdowns, deviations, and weaknesses honestly
• Turning lessons learned into concrete next steps

1. Structure

A clear presentation fits on a handful of slides or pages:

1. Summary — system, market, period, headline result in R and money
2. The system in one page — thesis and key rules (from your system document)
3. Results — equity curve, drawdown chart, statistics table
4. Comparison — trial vs forward test vs backtest
5. Risk and discipline — maximum drawdown, largest loss, rule adherence, incidents
6. Lessons learned — what worked, what didn't, what changes
7. Next steps — continue, scale, modify, or retire, with reasons

2. Charts and statistics

Charts

• Equity curve in R — shows strategy performance independent of size changes
• Equity curve in money — the real-world result
• Drawdown chart — depth and length of drawdowns (see Drawdown control and equity curve management)
• Rolling expectancy — against your benchmark (see Full journal with equity curve, drawdown, and expectancy tracking)

Statistics table

3. Comparing with expectations

Always show the trial next to your earlier evidence:

Worked example

(Illustrative.)

Interpretation to present:

• Expectancy fell from backtest to forward test, then held roughly steady live — the live result matches the forward test, which is the relevant benchmark.
• Adherence slipped to 88%. Trades with mistake tags cost −2.6R; without them, expectancy would have been about +0.17R.
• Drawdown stayed within tested levels.
• Conclusion: the edge is real but modest; execution discipline is the main improvement area.

4. Presenting weaknesses honestly

Credibility comes from how you handle bad news:

• Show the full equity curve — including the worst drawdown.
• List deviations and incidents with their R impact (see Run a live or funded trial with full audit trail).
• Name the conditions in which the system struggled (for example, low-volatility ranges).
• Avoid cherry-picked periods or "if we exclude these trades" headline figures — show adjusted numbers only alongside the full ones.

5. Lessons learned and next steps

Structure lessons as evidence → lesson → action:

Finish with a clear decision: continue, scale, modify (with a new test cycle), or retire.

Common beginner mistakes

• Showing only the money curve, hiding size effects.
• Leaving out the drawdown chart.
• Comparing only with the backtest instead of the forward test.
• Presenting adjusted figures as headline results.
• Lessons without actions.

Key terms

Practice

1. Produce the four core charts from your trial data.
2. Complete the statistics table and the three-stage comparison.
3. Write at least three evidence → lesson → action rows.
4. Assemble the full presentation and rehearse delivering it in under ten minutes.

Quick recap

• Structure: summary, system, results, comparison, risk and discipline, lessons, next steps.
• Include equity curves in R and money, drawdown, and rolling expectancy.
• Compare the trial with the forward test, and explain the gaps.
• Present weaknesses and deviations openly.
• Turn every lesson into an action and end with a clear decision.